Probability of a Steak

**cwsmith17** · 07-07-2013, 02:45 AM

I have been working with excel and am having a problem figuring out how to write a program to answer this question: During an 82 game season, you expect to win 75% of the games, with the probability of winning each game being .75. What is the probability that you never lose two games in a row?

I was thinking of generating random results in excel and running that model a large number of times to eliminate bais, but I don't remember how do to it.

Any help is appreciated!!!!

**kalak** · 07-07-2013, 05:01 AM

maybe like this?

Please Login or Register  to view this content.

**abousetta** · 07-07-2013, 06:30 AM

Bayesian statistics is more aligned for question on probabilities. If you go down that path, WinBUGS and OpenBUGS (in addition to JAGS and other freely available software) are the standard programs. If you want to stay with a classical (frequentist) model, search for monte carlo simulations + Excel.

Hope this helps.

abousetta