That is because Vlookup found a match and the corresponding cell in the 14th column is sometimes blank, but Vlookup returns 0 when that is the case... and adds the 1...
Try:
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=IF(OR(P2=1,P2=2,P2=3),IF(OR(ISNA(VLOOKUP(D2,QTR1_2011,14,FALSE)),VLOOKUP(D2,QTR1_2011,14,FALSE)=0),"",(VLOOKUP(D2,QTR1_2011,14,FALSE)+1) ),"")
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