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Cumulative Probability Question - Which Is Correct?

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    08-21-2010
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    Omaha, NE
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    Excel 2003
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    Cumulative Probability Question - Which Is Correct?

    Hello,

    In each period (#1 - 10) the probability that an event will happen increases 3% from the period prior. What is the probability that it will happen, or has already happened, in any given period (e.g. in period #3, the probability that the event happens at least once in period 1, 2 or 3)? Is approach 'A' capturing the cumulative nature of it correctly? Is 'A' more correct, or another method? I've attached an example sheet with data for my question. Any help appreciated!

    Greg

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