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Calculating total future earnings having applied a cancellation rate

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    Calculating total future earnings having applied a cancellation rate

    This is not the easiest thing for me to put into words but I'll give it a go:

    Clients pay a fixed monthly fee. I'll call this f and give it a value of £50
    We also know that 3% of clients cancel each month, or to put it another way, 97% of clients remain from the previous month. I'll call this c.

    Therefore we can calculate the total income from any given client as:
    (I can't see how to do superscript so fc2 means f multiplied by c to power 2)

    f + fc + fc2 + fc3 + fc4 + fc5 ... adinfinitum

    or

    f ( c + c2 + c3 + c4 + c5 ... adinfinitum)

    given that at some stage a client would stop paying regardless, life is after all finite, my final calculation would have to have a place to stop. lets say this is after 120 months and give this the value n

    so the formula i need to be able to calculate is:

    f ( c + c2 + c3 + c4 + c5 ...c120) or f ( c + c2 + c3 + c4 + c5 ...cn)

    If anyone can tell me how this is done in Excel (or even what the mathematical name is for this type of formula so I can look it up) then I would appreciate it.
    Last edited by Snowboyd; 03-24-2011 at 11:09 AM.

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    Re: Calculating total future earnings having applied a cancellation rate

    It's the sum of the geometric series 1 + x + x^2 + x^3 + ..., which for x < 1 converges to 1 / (1-x)

    So for monthly payments of $50 and a 97% retention rate,

    = 50 / (1-97%) ~ $1667
    Last edited by shg; 03-24-2011 at 11:35 AM.
    Entia non sunt multiplicanda sine necessitate

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    Re: Calculating total future earnings having applied a cancellation rate

    Thanks shg, I had a feeling there was a simple solution to at least the first part of the solution somewhere (I just couldn't find it).

    So if the solution to convergence is 1/(1-x) is there any way we can amend to calculate as far as n (i.e. up to a fixed number of sums) as opposed to infinity?

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    Re: Calculating total future earnings having applied a cancellation rate

    The sum of the first n terms = f*(1 + c + c^2 + ... + c^(n-1)) is

    =f*(1-c^n)/(1-c)

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    Re: Calculating total future earnings having applied a cancellation rate

    shg gave me enough info to start to search for the answer I was looking for so for the benefit of the community:

    sum of a finite power series:

    (x^n+1 - x) / (x-1)

    So for my needs, the formula is:

    f (c^n+1 - c) / (c-1)

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