Predictive Model Formula

**Davis** · 12-17-2008, 07:21 PM

Hello, I'm working on setting new performance goals for my business
group. The metric I'm working on is average talk time for a customer
service call. The goal would be to end the month equal or lower than
the goal. Below is the data for the past 13 months:

5.48 5.61 5.70 6.09 6.13 5.80 5.64 5.63 5.72 5.81 5.91 5.98 5.99

I need to create a formula that will calculate a new target goal that
will have an 80% probability of being successful based on the
historical data for the past 13 months. The current goal is to be <=5.5 but this has only happened once in 13 months. I need to determine a goal that has an 80% chance of being successful.

Any help would be greatly appreciated. If you have any questions or
need more data, please respond to this post and I can review ASAP.

**teylyn** · 12-17-2008, 08:10 PM

This is not really an Excel-how-to question but rather an Analysis-how-to question.

I don't think you can calculate this based on the numbers given. You need more data. Average talk time does not cut it, but you'd need to look at a histogram or Pareto chart for all calls. This would give you much more accurate information base for determining an 80% achievable KPI.

HTH

**shg** · 12-18-2008, 07:32 PM

You could set a goal for each month by taking the average of the call times in the prior month after dropping some number of the longest calls. So dropping the five longest calls in your example gives a goal of 5.67 minutes, down from the current 5.81.

Or you could use a learning curve approach, and apply a constant reduction factor; e.g., 97% would make this month's goal 5.63 minutes.

Predictive Model Formula

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