The best forecast is based upon specific manufacturing data such as
inventory, quality rejection rates, etc. Another reasonable approach is to
use a mirror forecast:

Keep track of two separate running averages. The short-term average over
the previous 10 days and a long-term average over the preceding quarter.

Forecast the next 10-20 days using the short-term average and the balance
forward using the long-term average.

TO validate this approach, keep track of predicted production vs actual
production
--
Gary's Student


"Brisbane Rob" wrote:

>
> We budget to manufacture about 10 000 units per month and the daily
> production is recorded in a column along side the applicable date. The
> materials we use vary in quality which means production can sometimes
> run above or below budget for days at a time. What would be the best
> method to forecast production on an on-going basis?
>
> We work Monday to Friday but occassionally on Saturdays.
>
> Any ideas?
>
> Thanks
>
>
> --
> Brisbane Rob
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>