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Creating a forecast based on sales data

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    Creating a forecast based on sales data

    In this example, I am trying to create a demand forecast using the sales data. I am not sure where to start with creating a forecast in Excel. I normally use different systems to generate a forecast.

    Any context or guidance is appreciated.
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    Re: Creating a forecast based on sales data

    I would probably start by deciding what forecasting algorithm you intend to use. Then we can work on programming that algorithm into the spreadsheet.

    Excel does not have a lot of different algorithms preprogrammed. There is this tool (based on the built in FORECAST.ETS functions) that uses an exponential triple smoothing algorithm for forecasting: https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/...c-60a7062329fd

    Since that tool is based on the built in FORECAST.ETS() functions, you can also use those functions (help file for those functions is linked in above).

    If you are looking for a different regression kind of algorithm, Excel has built in ordinary least squares regression tools, like the LINEST() function.

    If you are looking for something other than ETS or OLS, Excel may not have the algorithm preprogrammed for you and you may need to develop the desired algorithm in the spreadsheet. If you can help us understand the algorithm, we should be able to help program it into the spreadsheet.

    What kind of forecasting algorithm are you looking for?
    Quote Originally Posted by shg
    Mathematics is the native language of the natural world. Just trying to become literate.

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    Re: Creating a forecast based on sales data

    Thank you for your support. In this case, I do not want to venture outside of Excel. I have looked into the FORECAST.ETS() functions, and will explore this option. I would appreciate any further support with the FORECAST.ETS() function.

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    Re: Creating a forecast based on sales data

    I'm not sure I can help further. Everything I would know about Excel's ETS algorithm is in the help files I linked to above, and that also is about the extent of what I know about ETS in general. I would recommend starting with Microsoft's documentation and see what specific parts seem unclear or you want clarification on.

    One tip I might pass on. I notice that all of your dates are really text strings. I don't know how important it will be to Excel, but somewhere along the way, I would not be surprised if you will need to convert these text strings to real date serial numbers.
    Last edited by MrShorty; 03-10-2023 at 06:28 PM.

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