looking for a formula to calculate betting size

[Rizatou4]

hey all
i am into sport betting
and i m looking for a formula that will calculate the stake so it will cover the previous losses and will make a profit if the bet wins,if i provide the odds

i.e. i make a bet,odds re 1.84 and i lose 1unit
i need the formula to calculate the bbetting size that will cover the loss and make profit for X odds



thank you mates

[Croweater]

So if your losses are X and your odds are Y/Z that means you have to bet Z to make a profit of Y (assuming it wins).

So the amount you need to bet to break even (on previous losses) is X/Y*Z.

[Rizatou4]

i dont get it
can you show an example?

[Croweater]

So lets say your losses are $150 so far (X=150)

You get a sure tip on a dishlicker at 5/2 (Y=5, Z=2)

So you need to win $150 to break even. That means you need to win $150 at 5/2. Correct?

If you put $60 on at 5/2 you win 2 and a half times your stake. Correct?

So 2 and a half times $60 is $150 (your losses), so you have broke even.

How did i get that $60? Well, $150 divided by 5 (=$30) multiplied by 2 =$60. ie. X/Y*Z.

Disclaimer: Bet responsibly. Don't chase your losses. Isn't that what they say on the ads?

[Rizatou4]

thank you i got it now

[Croweater]

So you want to make 165 euros on your next bet (120+45). So X=165

Odds are 2,25? I assume that means if you bet one euro you win 2.25 (So odds are 9/4...correct? If I have that wrong tell me what "2,25" actually means or change it appropriately in my calculation). So Y=9, Z=4

X/Y*Z = 165/9*4 = 73.33

So you would have to bet 73.33 Euros to make a 45 euro profit on a previous loss of 120 euros.

EDIT. OK glad you got it.

[Rizatou4]

thank you very much for your help
now i d go on greedy mode,that what gambling is after all and ask smth more
is there a way to calculate how many bet i can make for X amount of monney as bankroll Y odds and
Z profit target after each bet?


i.e.
bankroll is 100 euros
odds re 2.82
protit target with covering previous losses is 1 euro

can i calculate how many bets i can make before all the bankroll is gone?

[Croweater]

Not quite sure what you mean here but I'll try to work something out...my initial formula didn't work out when I wrote a spreadsheet to test it.

Give me a mo...and I'll get back to you.

OK I've attached a worksheet that will tell you how long your initial bankroll will last given odds, your bet size, and your expected win/loss ratio

I find a spreadsheet much easier to solve these types of problem than a 'formula' and this is an Excel forum after all, not a maths forum (note the cop out justification )

(If I get keen, I'll try to work out the actual formula).

Put your inputs in the green cells.

[Croweater]

OK. I've had a think about this and come up with the following;

Your expected outcome for each bet = Probability of winning X Amount you win - Probability of Losing X Amount you lose

So the amount of bets you can expect to make with your initial bankroll is your bankroll divided by that number above (multiplied by -1 because your expected outcome will be less than zero if you are being realistic)

If your expected outcome is positive, your money will last forever of course.

Another consideration is that your wins will not be nice and uniform over all of your bets, so the ACTUAL number of bets you get to make will depend on when your wins occur, as demonstrated by the worksheet I put up.

Hope that explains it in a maths sense?

Note: If you randomize your wins (as expected in the real world) by putting this formula in E2 in the worksheet I posted, every time you recalculate (F9), you will get vastly different results.

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[Rizatou4]

thank you very much

[AliGW]

If that takes care of your original question, please select Thread Tools from the menu link above and mark this thread as SOLVED.

Also, if you have not already done so, you may not be aware that you can thank those who have helped you by clicking the small star icon (* Add Reputation) located in the lower left corner of the post in which the help was given. By doing so you can add to the reputation(s) of all those who offered help.

[Rizatou4]

ok i know now how to break even now
what i m looking for if its possible is a way to calculate for a given amount of money with given odds and profit target
how many bets i can make with covering losses and making the profit before original amount of money is gonne with the wind


i.e.

bankroll : 100 euros
odds : 3.40
profit target : 2.40


how to calculate how many times i can bet with this bankroll aiming to 2.4 profits?

[Croweater]

how many bets i can make with covering losses and making the profit before original amount of money is gonne with the wind

I don't understand this. How can you make a profit AND lose your original stake money?

Do you mean every time you are up by your profit target, you take that amount out of your pool of money and stick it in your back pocket? Or something else?

[Rizatou4]

hello
thank you for the reply
i meant how many bets i can make by this way of betting meaning rising my stakes so i cover the previous loses and aiming for the profit of 2.40
when i have a win i return to the start


for my given example

bankroll : 100 euros
odds : 3.40
profit target : 2.40

target is 2.40 so i bet 1 euro on the first bet and the bet lost
now i have to make another bet,covering the lost unit and aiming profit of 2.to40
if that bet loses i have to make another bet covering the loses of the previous lost bets and giving me profit of 2.40
and so on,till one bet win or my bankroll gone with the wind


what i need to know is a way to figure out how many bets i can make with the given way

[AliGW]

This thread is marked as solved ...

[Rizatou4]

how to change that?

[AliGW]

The same way you added it in reverse: please select Thread Tools from the menu link above right and mark this thread as UNSOLVED.

[Croweater]

OK...I THINk this is what you mean.
I made a change to your initial bet to give you your target profit, and made the following calculation for your next bet, depending on whether you won or lost on your last bet.
This will cover your previous losses AND give you your target profit if you win.

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[Rizatou4]

what i need to know is a way to figure out how many bets i can make with the given way of betting

100 units

odds 3.40

profit aim 2.40

how many bets befora bankroll gone with the wind?

[Croweater]

Change the profit from whatever I put in the attachment to test it, to 2.40 then!

Of course the worksheet I gave you works on a (more realistic) random win ratio.

If you want a uniform win every so many bets, then use this formula in E2 and drag down

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Then just increase your win loss ratio until your bankroll is "Gone with the Wind".

The answer in that scenario for your given data is 15 bets.

If that doesn't give you what you want, then maybe you should ask Margaret Mitchell.

[Rizatou4]

The answer in that scenario for your given data is 15 bets.
.

that is what i was looking for

can you tell me how you calculate it so i can do it my own with different numbers?

[Croweater]

Yes. Plug your different numbers into the spreadsheet I gave you.