I would like to work out the probability of a goal being scored

Hello all,

First post I have made

I am looking at football statistics and trying to create a formula that will predict the probability of a goal being scored.

I have spent absolutely hours on this and I am now a bit stuck!

I have managed to get this basic data which is:

Man city score in 100% of their home matches
Southampton concede in 79% of their away matches

I would like to be able to use this data, to work out the probability of Man city scoring.

I have the same statistics for Southampton goals away (63%) and Man City conceding at home (53%) and would like to work out the probability of Southampton scoring.

Lastly I would like to use both of these statists and work out the general, overall probability of at least 1 goal being scored in the match.

There must be a way I can do this....