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Using TREND With Updating Data

  1. #1
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    Using TREND With Updating Data

    Hi Folks,

    Looking to predict future warranty claims based on previous data. Actual data is updated into spreadsheet weekly, and looking to extrapolate potential future claims from the actual data.

    Seem to be having a case of Excel writers block on how to go about it..... I was thinking of the TREND function, possibly with dynamic ranges, but am not getting good results. Since there are dozens of items - and dozens more production lots - and needing to "scale" this adds to the difficulty since data varies depending on the start and end of data in the range, and new data will be coming in weekly.

    Here's an example of data I'm trying to get a future "trend" or forecast on:

    http://www.filedropper.com/warrclaim

    The cells highlighted in yellow are the future data I'm looking to "predict" data for.

    This has really got me stuck so even just pointing me in the right direction if I'm way off here would be greatly appreciated.

    Regards,

    Ray Jr.

  2. #2
    Forum Expert shg's Avatar
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    Re: Using TREND With Updating Data

    Your data is wildly non-linear -- it looks like you have a lot of infant mortality, which some failure analysis might explain and some burn-in might avoid.

    Most failures rates follow a bathtub curve -- early and decreasing failures (infant mortality) as a result of manufacturing defects, followed by a period of relatively flat random failures, followed by increasing numbers of failures due to wear-out mechanisms.

    Have a read of http://www.weibull.com/hotwire/issue21/hottopics21.htm
    Entia non sunt multiplicanda sine necessitate

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