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Problem Using Solver with an optimization stock problem

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  1. #1
    Registered User
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    01-22-2013
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    Utah
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    Excel 2003
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    Problem Using Solver with an optimization stock problem

    Hey guys this is my first post/question. I am doing a project using data from a stock (netflix...or any stock for that matter). SKIP TO THE LAST TWO PARAGRAPHS, FOR A MORE SUCCINCT QUESTION WITH OUR ALL THE EXCESS INFORMATION)

    With the data, i have calculated the %change in the price for each day for 3 years. I have an IF(AND) equation to find all the days in which there was a given 1% interval decrease in price (-4%to -3%, or -8% -9%, etc., and this is highlighted in red on my spreadsheet). My IF(AND) equation basically reads: if there is a given percent decrease in the price of the stock and the decrease is between (for an example) -3 and -4 percent, then what is the percent change of that stock the next day? I have Five of these IF(AND)statements with each one adding up one more day - This may sound very confusing, and I am struggling to explain it, but looking at the spreadsheet will make a lot of sense.

    The project is to try and see if a stock decreases by a certain percentage interval, how often does that stock have a positive percent change within 1 to 5 days. Then off to the right hand side of my spreadsheet I count all the occurences that the stock price decreases by the particular percent interval, and I count of those occurrences, which ones had a positive percent change and then divide the two numbers. This gives me the "likelihood" or average of when the stock has rebounded, or become positive, within 1 day, 2 days, 3 days, 4 days, and 5 days. I also decided to see that if the stock rebounds, what is the average percent it does rebound - so in each column(1 day column, 2 day column, etc.) I used the conditional sum wizard to add all of the occurrences that had a positive percent change in stock price and divided that number by the number of occurences that the stock saw a positive percent change.

    NAIN QUESTION: In the past if ABC stock decreased within 4 to 5 percent on a given day, how often did the stock have a positive percent change within one day, or within two days, (and up to five days) And according to how often the stock does become positive with the five day range, what is average amount that the stock has increased?

    Ultimately, I want to use solver to show me the optimum percentage interval that maximizes the average the stock increased across the five day time period. The attachment has explanations, and is easier to understand than my poor wording. Thanks!
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