Per your file:
A3: =INDEX($C$6:$K$6,MATCH($E$3,$D$27:$K$27,0))
Do not use Merged Cells -- for Horizontal ranges you can use "Centre Across Selection" to get the same effect without any of the associated headaches.
On an aside the SMALL(...,COUNTIF()+1) approach is certainly one I would opt for in preference to a MIN array regardless of Merged Cells issues.
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