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Calculating R(t) and Exponential Growth Rate

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ilovegermany Calculating R(t) and... 05-01-2021, 06:19 AM
JohnTopley Re: Calculating R(t) and... 05-01-2021, 06:45 AM
ilovegermany Re: Calculating R(t) and... 05-04-2021, 02:37 PM
JohnTopley Re: Calculating R(t) and... 05-04-2021, 03:01 PM
FDibbins Re: Calculating R(t) and... 05-08-2021, 01:33 AM
MrShorty Re: Calculating R(t) and... 05-04-2021, 03:32 PM
  1. #1
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    Lightbulb Calculating R(t) and Exponential Growth Rate

    I am tracking Covid-19 in Germany and I need help figuring this out in a formula, I should have all the data needed to do the formulas but
    I don't understand how to make the formulas according to this article tracking a virus at plus maths dot org
    (sorry it won't let me post links)

    1. Reproduction Rate R(t) explained in this document at blog dot covidactnow covid-risk-levels-matrics

    Calculating Infection Growth Rate (Reproduction Rate R(t) )
    To calculate the infection growth, a mathematical model combines trends in daily new cases from approximately the last 14 days, with estimates for other variables, such as how many days on average occur between infection and transmission.

    I want to calculate it for the number of new infections and use nowcasting


    2. Exponential Growth Rate, and growth rate per day or over time
    I found something like this exponential growth or decay function is a function that grows or shrinks at a constant percent growth rate.
    The equation can be written in the form f(x) = a(1 + r)x or f(x) = abx where b = 1 + r.
    but not sure if this is correct I need help making an excel formula

    here they talk about it at sciencedirect dot com
    and at ipdjournal dot biomedcentral dot com

    also I need a formula for rate of increase and rate of growth based on new cases daily



    The second test I use to measure the growth is Incidence and Prevalence.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    3. Incidence Level - I have this formula and it works fine based on 7 day per 100k

    4. Prevalence
    see technologynetworks dot com immunology articles incidence-vs-prevalence-329073
    How I calculated for it I took the # of active cases about 21 days, per 100k of population
    I think this is right ?

    But the guide says I need a threshold for the prevalence - to determine the risk, this I do not know how to calculate it


    5. Having all of this data, and learning about nowcasting - how can I predict what the numbers could be in the next 7-14 days or longer ?
    Should I use the growth rate ? or something else ? This place does it but I don't know how this link does it -- cardiopraxis dot de coronafuturum-corona-forecast-calculator-for-covid-19


    6. Last sometimes my growth rates are a negative number based on the previous days number or the last 7 days total , I don't want the rates to go negative, what do you suggest ?

    Link to my document won't work this forum won't let me attach it or link to it, but maybe is a way to email

    Thanks in advance

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    Re: Calculating R(t) and Exponential Growth Rate

    Please change your profile for "MS-Off Ver" to something meaningful rather than "Latest".

    And this not really an Excel question: more to do with medical statistics and forecasting techniques.

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    Re: Calculating R(t) and Exponential Growth Rate

    Strange someone deleted my reply, I changed my profile for you.
    I added to this forum, because this has to be done in excel, it is not medical statistics expert, the articles I link give mathematical equations, but I don't understand how to do in excel, had you read my links you would understand. please do not delete my reply.

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    Re: Calculating R(t) and Exponential Growth Rate

    I certainly did not delete your reply (not least because I don't have such authority).

    You are likely to get a more positive response if you provided the equations rather than expecting the contributors here (among whom there are mathematicians) to read the articles and extract them.

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    Re: Calculating R(t) and Exponential Growth Rate

    Quote Originally Posted by ilovegermany View Post
    Strange someone deleted my reply, I changed my profile for you.
    I added to this forum, because this has to be done in excel, it is not medical statistics expert, the articles I link give mathematical equations, but I don't understand how to do in excel, had you read my links you would understand. please do not delete my reply.
    For what it's worth, only Moderators and Admin can delete posts. Also, I see no evidence of any posts being deleted here?
    1. Use code tags for VBA. [code] Your Code [/code] (or use the # button)
    2. If your question is resolved, mark it SOLVED using the thread tools
    3. Click on the star if you think someone helped you

    Regards
    Ford

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    Re: Calculating R(t) and Exponential Growth Rate

    The equation can be written in the form f(x) = a(1 + r)x or f(x) = abx where b = 1 + r. but not sure if this is correct I need help making an excel formula
    I can confirm that f(x)=a*(1+r)^x is an expression for exponential growth. f(x)=a*b^x is another form (used by Excel's LOGEST() function, if you decide to use LOGEST() to perform any of the regressions: https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/...rs=en-us&ad=us ). The form I think most learn in school (especially when you get into calculus) is f(x)=a*exp(c*x), because base e exponential/logarithms are especially "natural" (ha-ha) when doing calculus. If your sources are saying that f(x)=a*(1+r)^x is the "correct" form, then that is probably the form you will want to derive. If you are going to be doing regressions in Excel, it will probably be easiest to use the f(x)=a*b^x (equivalent to ln(f(x))=ln(a)+x*ln(b) which is the form used by the linear regression algorithms) form, since that is the form used by the LOGEST() function.

    From there, we might need to better understand exactly what help you need in order to make an Excel formula.
    Quote Originally Posted by shg
    Mathematics is the native language of the natural world. Just trying to become literate.

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