This is (IMHO) impossible. If it was entirely random, the probability is 0.5. If the two players are of EXACTLY equal ability that might be tempered by a weighting for the advantages that flow from serving. If the two players are of unequal ability another weighting would apply and then it just gets too complicated for anything other than guesswork.
So, is this really about tennis? If not, you need to supply some REAL information about what you are trying to model.
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