Hello excel masters.
Here is an excel sheet of a tennis match:
1.png
My question:
How I calculate the probability of getting 15-0 on Game #5 if my sequence is :
15-0, 15-0, 0-15, 0-15
0-15, 0-15, 0-15, 0-15, 0-15
15-0, 0-15, 0-15, 15-0, 0-15
What formulas should I use?
Any advice is very welcome!
Regards,
This is (IMHO) impossible. If it was entirely random, the probability is 0.5. If the two players are of EXACTLY equal ability that might be tempered by a weighting for the advantages that flow from serving. If the two players are of unequal ability another weighting would apply and then it just gets too complicated for anything other than guesswork.
So, is this really about tennis? If not, you need to supply some REAL information about what you are trying to model.
Glenn
None of us get paid for helping you... we do this for fun. So DON'T FORGET to say "Thank You" to all who have freely given some of their time to help YOU
Oookay :D that is mathematically correct, 50% if we have only 2 chances = head or tail, that's right.
But...lets get a roulette in casino.
we have 3 rows
imagine we have this output sequence : 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2
What is a chance of getting a 3rd row on 9th game ?
8/9 ? right? please do not say me 33.33% :D
Okay, an easier example, we have 8 coins:
I dropped 3 coins with this sequence:
head-head-head
what is a probability to get a tail ?
75%? is it correct?
No, the fourth toss of the coin is not dependent on what has gone before, so the probability is still 50%.
Pete
The probability of getting 4 heads in a row is 1/16; but the probability of ANY one coin flick being a head is 0.5, whether it is the first or the 101st.
I have this atm:
=INDEX(B4:G4, COUNTA(B4:G4))
It shows me the last value with text, now I want to know if this value repeats in a sequence, in our case the value has to be 2
I really don't know how to do it
One in 3.... Each event is independent. Actually slightly less that 1:3, because of the 1 (or 2) zeros on the wheel.
Yep. Agreed.
Thank you Glenn, now I have a question.
How I can do this in excel?
I have a sequence of 15-0 15-0 0-15 0-15
The probability of getting 15-0 is 2/3 because the last results are not equal to 15-0
so I think the formula can be:
find in an array of cells from B4 to F4 last value(or a value I specify) and if a last value repeats, sum how many times it repeats
I'm away for the night. However you really do need to tell us what you are actually doing and forget all the flawed analogies. Independent events are independent events. Period. End of story...
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