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Weighted % from average of range

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    Weighted % from average of range

    Probably not explained this very well in the to be honest. I've been asked to look at some data which measures retention of balances of Bonds after maturity and pull out a trend over time.

    Due to the make-up the balances that mature in any given month can vary wildly, and there is a bit of a correlation between size of maturity and balances retained (as you will see in the data), which means graphing a linear time series is quite volatile.

    What I need to do is to adjust each retention % to take into account the size of the maturity and bring them closer to the mean based on volumes been even throughout the 18 months. However I'm stuck for ideas on how to do this.

    The data shows based on volumes than low balances retain uncharacteristically high, and vice versa, so I'm wanting to do something which will bring down the %'s for low volumes and uplift them for high volumes as if everything was compared on a like for like basis.

    I can't see to upload, so this should work in CSV below.

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    I also fear I may be in the wrong subforum, feel free to move.
    Last edited by mosmosmos; 06-21-2017 at 02:59 PM.

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    Re: Weighted % from average of range

    Hi,

    I believe you might wanna do a multiple regression model, such as y = β1 + β2 * x2 + β3 * x3, is that right? Where β2 represents the impact of the maturing balance and β3 the impact of trend

    There are some guides on the web to do that using add-ins that you could look into, searching "excel multiple correlation". It would help if you have some knowledge on the topic though

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    Re: Weighted % from average of range

    =sumproduct(b2:b19,c2:c19)/sum(b2:b19)

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    Re: Weighted % from average of range

    Quote Originally Posted by Jdevil View Post
    Hi,

    I believe you might wanna do a multiple regression model, such as y = β1 + β2 * x2 + β3 * x3, is that right? Where β2 represents the impact of the maturing balance and β3 the impact of trend

    There are some guides on the web to do that using add-ins that you could look into, searching "excel multiple correlation". It would help if you have some knowledge on the topic though
    Upon investigating regression I stumbled across putting in the following;

    =FORECAST(B2,$C$2:$C$19,$B$2:$B$19) etc, which subsequently replots the points to the line of best fit. The R Squared isn't great but in theory at least it replots the retention %'s onto the line of best fit to remove the volatility. This doesn't exactly make it as if everything is even, but it may achieve something similar to what I want, I think?

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    Re: Weighted % from average of range

    Quote Originally Posted by mosmosmos View Post
    Upon investigating regression I stumbled across putting in the following;

    =FORECAST(B2,$C$2:$C$19,$B$2:$B$19) etc, which subsequently replots the points to the line of best fit. The R Squared isn't great but in theory at least it replots the retention %'s onto the line of best fit to remove the volatility. This doesn't exactly make it as if everything is even, but it may achieve something similar to what I want, I think?
    Hi,

    Yes, it seems to do its job at estimating the Retained from the Maturing Balance, but I'm not sure how you could derive a trend from that. If what you're looking for is to find a trend, then you're dealing with 2 variables at once.

    I haven't tried, but this article I quickly looked at on Google: http://cameron.econ.ucdavis.edu/exce...egression.html

    The intercepts you find in the table are basically what you are looking for, where one of the two variables would be your trend while the other is simply the impact of the maruting balance variation

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