Calculate the odds

[Tony Valko]

Hi Folks!

This is not specifically an Excel question but if I knew the equation I would do it in Excel!

My local casino has a game of 3 card poker. 52 cards in the deck.

If you draw A K Q of spades you win the progressive jackpot if you wager on it (currently worth about $30,000).

My question: what are the odds of drawing the A K Q of spades?

Edit: I have drawn the A and K before but that almighty Q evades me!

[shg]

Get dealt 3 cards and that's it?

1 in combin(52, 3)

[Tony Valko]

Get dealt 3 cards and that's it?

Yes

1 in combin(52, 3)

That was easy enough.

Thanks!

[shg]

You're welcome.

If that's a $30K payout on a $1 bet, and you have deep pockets, you should bet it forever.

[Tony Valko]

If that's a $30K payout on a $1 bet

It is. The pot grows until someone hits it then it starts over again.

you should bet it forever.

That's my strategy when the pot is significant.

[JeteMc]

An equivalent way to get the same answer (1 in 22100 or 4.52489E-05) would be

Please Login or Register  to view this content.

Taking that into consideration this file will show the number of hands that you would expect to "Play" before getting a "Winner". Press the F9 key to start a new round.

Hands to Win.xlsx

Tried to run 30,000 (as that is the amount in question) trails per round, however the site only accepts uploads of 1,000k or less.

[shg]

I think the expected number of hands is =LOG(0.5, 1 - 1/COMBIN(52,3)) ~~ 15,318, no?

[shg]

I think that's wrong -- experimentally, I get about 22,000

[shg]

Brain cramp -- 22000-odd, the result of my quick experiment, is close to the calculated result (22,100). The median value (half more, half fewer) should be the 15,318. I'll check that when I get a few minutes.