how to use & calculate probability in excel

Hi Friends,

Can someonehelp me with how to use & calculate probability in excel to determine the direction of stock price movement and extent of out / under performance aginst a benchmark index?

Your question is fairly broad. We are pretty good at programming things into Excel, but I don't know if any of us is knowledgeable in the mathematical models of finance.

If you know what financial model you want to use for this exercise, then I would suggest that you explain as best you can the equations and algorithms behind the model. I would also suggest that you explain what parts of the programming you already can accomplish, and ask specific questions about the parts of the programming that you are having trouble with.

If you do not, yet, know what financial model you want to use, I would suggest that you research the different financial models available (a quick internet search led me to some discussions of average and standard deviation and normal distributions ending in discussions of the Black-Scholes model where I ended my research). If you continue the research, I expect you will find several discussions of different models used to model and predict stock prices. Once you understand the math, statistical, and financial principles behind the model you want to use, then you will be in a better position to program that into Excel.