Sumproduct with sumifs formula

Thank you for taking a look at this for me.

It's still not quite working as I am expecting cell F27 to have 7500 in it.

I've just realised that the confirmed income and potential income reference is probably not needed if I have the probability in there, so this part of the formula could probably be removed. But I need it to take the revenue figure and multiply it by the probability.

I thought the sumproduct formula would help with this but I haven't managed to make it work .

Thanks again for your help!