Seasonal Forecasting Help

Hi.

I am a beginner when it comes to statistics and excel. I found this seasonal forecast excel worksheet online and have populated my monthly unit sales for the past 6 years. I am aware that my strongest months are April through June. So I do have seasonality in my time series data.

My goal was to forecast the current year. I already have sales from January through May of this year. But my actuals do not in any way come close to what the worksheet is forecasting for those months.

Do I have an incorrect function or formula in my forecast?

Here are my actuals for the year (2014)...

Jan 8
Feb 16
Mar 13
Apr 22
May 20

Thank you guys for reviewing my work.

The formula in R6 and copied down should be

=Q6 * INDEX($K$6:$K$17, MONTH(P6))

But my actuals do not in any way come close to what the worksheet is forecasting for those months.

Your sales values are more noise than anything else. There is no year-to-year seasonality, just random large values.

You're welcome.

Any suggestion on a methodology I should be looking into?

None at all. Your sales numbers vary wildly from month to month and year to year.