Forumla for probability to work out a sales forcast Excel 2013!

Hi guys,

Quick question which I hope will be easily answered!

I am writing up a excel spreadsheet for a sales log and forcast. The cells going in a horizontal manner are:

1: Product: Package 1 = £100 Package 2 = £160 this is in a drop down menu for users to select the appropriate one.
2: Lead strength: Cold, warm or hot.
3: Value: Either 100 or 160 depending on Package chosen
4: Probability of sale

Now, very importantly! What I want to know is if the product is £100 and the lead strength is cold, I want this to be refelected in an additional cell named "Weighted Forcast" I believe the maths would be 100 * 0.33 = 33. This means because the lead is cold there is a 1/3 chance of the product selling to the consumer, so we can only project a return of 33% of the revanue. When forcasting sales I believe this is how it should work.

Thankyou very much for your help, I guess my sales team could just use a calculator but I want them to just select cold, it registers in as a 33% probability and spits out the 33% projected amount in currency format so I can easily present the results to my superiors and for my own viewing!