Probability Calcualtion

Hi

My Father in Law wants to do some predictions on racing cars. He wants to work out the probability of the driver finishing in certain positions based on 4 previous races. For example..

These are the last 4 positions the driver finished the races.

7th
7th
10th
9th

These are the positions he wants to work out the probability of him finishing the next race e.g 10-7 (what is the probability of the driver coming in at positions 7 to 10), position 3 to 6 and so on.

10-7 6-3 2-1 22-17 10-5 3-1

I think these positions need to be split out separately, ie 7, 8,9,10.

Is there a formula I can use to populate his spreadsheet and do this various times?

Thanks

How good are you at stats? This might give you a starting point:
http://www.amstat.org/publications/j...ts.winner.html

This one adds some more variables (i.e. current handicap):
http://www.robschumaker.com/publicat...ss%20Races.pdf

Good luck - if you crack the code, don't tell anyone.