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Issues with Forecast Formula v Computerised Trend

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    Forum Contributor Alice21's Avatar
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    Question Issues with Forecast Formula v Computerised Trend

    Hi

    I have data in a chart which I have added a trend line to so I could see what the estimated activity demand would be for future months. However I needed to have actual figures for the trend so I used a FORECAST formula to re-create a trend line. My issue is that the computer generated trend line and my formulated trend line differ.

    Can anyone help please??

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    Forum Guru Kaper's Avatar
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    Re: Issues with Forecast Formula v Computerised Trend

    Examples, examples... OK, just one example.
    Because it normally works just fine
    Attached Files Attached Files
    Best Regards,

    Kaper

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    Re: Issues with Forecast Formula v Computerised Trend

    There is probably very little we can do without a better, more detailed description, or, better yet, an example of your spreadsheet file.

    2 Things I would check if I could:

    The FORECAST() function regresses against a basic straight line equation y=mx+b. Chart trendlines can be based on this or other equation types. Make sure your trendline and regression function are using the same equation form.

    Input data to the regression: Sometimes, chart trendline algorithms and the spreadsheet functions get different input values to the regression (especially for the "known_x values" parameter). Make sure that the input values to each regression are the same.
    Quote Originally Posted by shg
    Mathematics is the native language of the natural world. Just trying to become literate.

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    Re: Issues with Forecast Formula v Computerised Trend

    Updated example showing both trend line and forecast function.
    To add one more potential source of errorr - carefully check if x and y ranges are not mismatched
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Re: Issues with Forecast Formula v Computerised Trend

    Sorry but I'm very confused, this is the first time I have tried to do something like this! I'll try and post an example sheet for you

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    Re: Issues with Forecast Formula v Computerised Trend

    I hope you can see this attachment, I'm having difficulties with this website!

    The current trend lines you see in the charts are my formulated ones, when I add computerised trends to series 1 they are mis-matched.
    Attached Files Attached Files
    Last edited by Alice21; 03-16-2016 at 12:50 PM.

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    Re: Issues with Forecast Formula v Computerised Trend

    Your sample file only shows the results of your "Forecast" function. I see no other trendlines in the charts or elsewhere in the spreadsheet.

    I note that your input range to the FORECAST() function is restricted to the 2009 to early 2011 time frame. Perhaps this is the source of the disagreement?

    I note that, if I add a trendline based on series 1 (the series restricted to rows 8:34), the resulting trendline exactly matches the FORECAST() trendline. A trendline based on series 2 (the entire data set), naturally, has a different trendline. Is this the disagreement you are talking about?

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    Re: Issues with Forecast Formula v Computerised Trend

    But you do the forecast just for the few first dates (in I8):
    Formula: copy to clipboard
    Please Login or Register  to view this content.

    while your trendline is based on all data, so is equivalent to:
    Formula: copy to clipboard
    Please Login or Register  to view this content.

    If you use formula which refers to all data, and copy it down you'll get perfect match.

    Another approach is presented for team 2. I left your equation, but used excel to draw trendline for your series1 (so only first part of data, the same, you use for FORECAST.
    Again - perfect fit achieved. This case for trendline I set extrapolate forward 59 units to have trendline giung further than data ends.

    For both graphs, series with forecast is drwan with thick dotted line, because otherwive trendline was totally invisible (covered by forecast line).
    Attached Files Attached Files

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    Re: Issues with Forecast Formula v Computerised Trend

    Hi both

    Thank you for your help with this, it's been driving me mad. I have looked through my data again to try and understand why my lines were not matching and I can see a slight error with the data source for one of my teams! When I rectified this error my trend line matched my forecast line...! Such a simple oversight!

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