World Cup Prediction Competition

Hello everybody, it's now less than 8 days until the biggest sporting event on the planet (possibly).

I have devised a fiendishly simple prediction competition, here are 10 reasons why you should enter

1.) It's free
2.) It's simple
3.) As long as at least 15 people enter I'll donate £50 to a recognised charity of the winner's choice
4.) You can test your football knowledge against some of the world's top excel experts (and me)
5.) It's free
6.) You can follow your progress and compare against other participants in a no-expense-spared-state-of-the-art excel spreadsheet
7.) It's free
8.) er.......
9.) that's it

Here's what you do

Open the attached spreadsheet
Fill in your predicted scores for all 48 group games
Fill in a name (the name you want displayed - used an alias if you wish)
Fill in the "tie-breaker" under "Goals" - that's how many goals you think will be scored in those 48 games.
Now save the workbook and either post it in a reply to this thread or email it to me at d.addylonglegs@virgin.net [exactly as shown - don't forget the "." after the first "d"]
Option 2 is preferable - especially if you don't want others to see your predictions.

Rules

Scoring is as follows:

A rank is displayed against every team based on the current world rankings, and converted to a ranking within the 32 world cup qualifiers [the "highest" rank is 1]. If you predict a draw and the result is a draw (any draw) you get 3 points. If you predict a win for the higher ranked team and that team wins (by any score) you get 2 points, if you predict a win for the lower ranked team and that team wins you get 4 points. you get 2 additional points if you get the exact score right.

For example in game 1 South Africa play Mexico and Mexico are higher ranked (14 to 31) so if you predict a 2-1 win for South Africa and they win 2-1 you get 6 points, 4 for predicting a win by the lower placed team, and 2 for the correct score. If you predict 2-1 and the result is 3-1 then you'll just get the 4 points etc......

All scores are added and the highest score after 48 games is the winner. Any ties will be decided by the tie-breaker in favour of the closest guess. If it's still tied then kudos and charity are shared.

Predictions need to be emailed to me or posted here by 13:00 BST on Friday 11th June 2010 - that's 2 hours before the kick-off of the first game.

I will be adding my predictions and posting a spreadsheet back here showing all predictions and a table that will update as you enter the scores. Remember, if you don't want to see your name in lights - use an alias

Advice

It's meant to be fun - anybody taking it too seriously will be ridiculed

If you don't know anything about football (e.g. Arsenal supporters) don't let that stop you entering - for those of you who really know nothing about football, typical top level football games average less than 3 goals a game, so you may not get very far predicting 8-7 scorelines.......

In the last World Cup in Germany in 2006 the 48 group games produced a total of 117 goals (2.4375 per game on average).

Good luck

Any questions please feel free to post here

Emailed you my entry.

Dom

Thanks Dom, good luck.....

I too have posted mine off.

Will you be also posting this in the lounge area of Mr Excel, dll?

Dominic

Thanks DomB, good luck to you too.

I did consider posting at MrExcel but obviously you can't upload workbooks - I could upload to another site I suppose......or link to here (but that might not go down too well)

edit: now posted a link back to here in "the lounge" at MrE*****

Mine is in

Forza Italia!

Thanks NBVC and good luck

Don't want to let the cat out of the bag about your predictions but is it really likely that Italy will beat Paraguay 16 - 1 ?

Originally Posted by daddylonglegs

Thanks NBVC and good luck

Don't want to let the cat out of the bag about your predictions but is it really likely that Italy will beat Paraguay 16 - 1 ?

LOL... I have this certain gut feeling

Mine is in. You may see that I don't have a lot of confidence in either New Zealand or Germany ...

The really whacky scores are courtesy of my husband, though.

Thanks teylyn, good luck.

Are you backing NZ or Germany or do you have split loyalties?

i'm in too ,mailed entry

Thank you Martin - good luck to you too

Are you backing NZ or Germany or do you have split loyalties?

I'll cheer for the Kiwis, but keep my fingers crossed for the Germans.

Originally Posted by jeffreybrown

Mine is in also

Thanks Jeff, good luck

Originally Posted by Bob Phillips

That's a 1-1 if ever I saw one.

Goals or sendings-off, Bob?

I think I'll be predicting an Italy win for that one....just. Will you be participating, Bob? (not in the World Cup, I mean in my little competition.....)

Originally Posted by Bob Phillips

I was hoping to be there but I got the dreaded phone call on the Tuesday!

I did have a quick go at the sheet, but I think that in my results, about 5 groups were won with maximum points. If my memory serves me correctly, it never actually happens like that, usually just the one or two. So it is clear I don't know anything about international football. Whilst I am quite happy to display my Excel ignorance to the world, as we know from Bill Shankly, football is far more important than anything, including Excel.

I really wish you hadn't said that. I filled mine in so quickly it never even crossed my mind and looking back I think I've got 7 out of the 8 groups with max points. Feel free to laugh loudly!!!

Dom

But if you have to predict 5 results where there are 5 strong favorites what do you pick? Statistically you know that probably one of the 5 won't be a win for the favourite, but if you try to predict which one of the 5 you'll probably get it wrong and you'll end up getting only 3 right. Best to pick all 5 favorites and get 4 right

Originally Posted by Domski

I really wish you hadn't said that. I filled mine in so quickly it never even crossed my mind and looking back I think I've got 7 out of the 8 groups with max points. Feel free to laugh loudly!!!

If you want to change your predictions, Dom, feel free (that goes for anybody else too). As long as you get the changes to me before the deadline......

If you want a superb visual schedule, look at http://www.marca.com/deporte/futbol/...o-english.html

Link didn't work Bob but it did on Mr Excel...

http://www.marca.com/deporte/futbol/...o-english.html

Wow. That is neat

Approximately 24 hours to go - if you haven't yet sent me your predictions then please get them to me by 13:00 BST tomorrow (2 hours before the big kick-off) and I'll post up all the predictions here so you can fill in the scores and keep track if you wish.

I have drawn Honduras in the office sweep so expect a strong performance from them - semi-finals at least........

Originally Posted by daddylonglegs

Approximately 24 hours to go - if you haven't yet sent me your predictions then please get them to me by 13:00 BST tomorrow (2 hours before the big kick-off) and I'll post up all the predictions here so you can fill in the scores and keep track if you wish.

I have drawn Honduras in the office sweep so expect a strong performance from them - semi-finals at least........

Got my big new TV and Sky HD all set up and ready just in time. Beer, crisps and pizza order has been placed with Asda to arrive Saturday morning. This month I shall mostly be watching football.

I've got Greece and Nigeria in the draws going round work, not holding out too much hope. Can't wait for Honduras to beat Spain!!!

huh you think that's bad i've pulled north korea in our work draw. there is a prize for the last (ie worst points/goal difference/goals against)after the first round so im hoping to get that!

Yes Martin since I didn't enter the draw your a shoe in for last place

Originally Posted by daddylonglegs

I have drawn Honduras in the office sweep so expect a strong performance from them - semi-finals at least........

don't underestimate them - after all they have THE midfield general ... the great Palacios

Having nothing to do nor anywhere to go I can't stress just how much I am looking forward to the World Cup ... I might even be able to sit through the likes of Korea Republic vs Greece

I quite fancy Holland for a strong showing this time around - if they can keep Van Persie and the dirty Robben b-tard fit into the latter stages of the competition.

Spain are likely to play the best football ... as a purist I'd like to see them do well (assuming as expected Fabregas doesn't return to Arsenal next season...)

Originally Posted by DonkeyOte

Having nothing to do nor anywhere to go.....

.....and still you haven't entered my competition......

I think some of the South American countries could cause a surprise or two - I'm backing both Chile and Uruguay to do well.......but probably not Honduras

attached is the bet of my 7-year old son. Whenever either Germany or New Zealand was involved, his eyes lit up and the score went ballistic.

I promised to send it for inclusion.

cheers

Originally Posted by DonkeyOte

don't underestimate them - after all they have THE midfield general ... the great Palacios

Oh Luke, what a wit. I haven't laughed so much for months!

Originally Posted by DonkeyOte

Having nothing to do nor anywhere to go I can't stress just how much I am looking forward to the World Cup ... I might even be able to sit through the likes of Korea Republic vs Greece

I have to admit that talking about it beforehand is quite amusing, but the actual event fills me with dread. Millions of tacky jingoistic decals, being regulalrly assailed by the thoughts of people who haven't a clue what they are talking about, mad expectations that England will get past the quarters (many are still saying they will win - idiots), corporations suddenly jumping on the bandwagon pretending that they have believed this all along, plus all of that boring football. Someone even posted a paper from JP Morgan purportedly using their Qant analysis model that showed England would win (presumably, the same model that they applied to derivatives in the past!).

International football is low quality, and boring.

Me, I am going to try and get on with all of those projects that I have left in the cupboard these past four years, and try to avoid as much football as is possible. Oh, and look forward to the Ashes, the World Cup next year, and the Rugby World Cup.

BTW, Fabregas is hardly assured of a place in Spain's team, so you needn't worry there.

Originally Posted by teylyn

attached is the bet of my 7-year old son. Whenever either Germany or New Zealand was involved, his eyes lit up and the score went ballistic.

I promised to send it for inclusion.

cheers

I do hope he's right about the NZ vs Italy game

Dom

Originally Posted by teylyn

attached is the bet of my 7-year old son.

That's excellent, everybody is welcome, good luck Miles!

My stepson Callum has also entered (he's 13) and even mummylonglegs is threatening to have a go.......

Originally Posted by Bob Phillips

International football is low quality, and boring.

I'm not sure about that, Bob. Did you see Euro 2008, there were some fantastic games. Of course it probably helped that England weren't there.....

DaddyLongLegs,

Thanks for accepting Miles' contribution. I'll tell him in the morning before his own Saturday soccer game.

Comparing your new avatar with Domski's: there's the different background colour, of course (which probably has some significance that completely escapes the uninitiated), but I also notice that yours is tilted slightly to the left. What does that want to tell me?

As Simon Corden once said...

"Crouchy.... when I look at you everything tells me you should be rubbish at football..."

in his defence he has the Robot & the Rope.... as for Heskey & Upson....

(still one of my favourite sketches of all time: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAHLYvDVtHk&feature=fvw)

Teylyn,

Mine is just an image of the crest whereas I'm guessing DLL's is taken from an England away shirt being worn.

Dom

Ahh -- The real thing.

Originally Posted by teylyn

but I also notice that yours is tilted slightly to the left. What does that want to tell me?

Not even sure where I got it from now - I was really looking for an England football a little like NBVC's Italian one.

Co-incidentally I do lean to the left, though........

Originally Posted by Bob Phillips

As I see it Barry, you get some very high quality games in the various European leagues, and in the European Championship (of course, not when Tottenham play next year!). But internationals, they are tentative, over-hyped, under-prepared, and usually lesser teams.

I do agree with that, in general. Most international teams (especially England) play together much less often than the top club sides and consequently the club sides should always be superior. Of course clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Chelsea and Man City also have either the cachet or the money (or both) to attract the top players from anywhere around the world, whereas England have to make do with what we've got (in an era where fewer young English players get a chance at the top clubs because those clubs prefer to shop elsewhere).

Having said that, that's half the attraction for me. Most international sides, even some of the top ones like Germany, have deficiencies that they can't patch by just buying some new talent in, I'd be happier if that applied to club sides too (and it probably will at some point with either a cap on wages or restrictions on foreign players) so then clubs would need to go back to seriously investing in producing their own talent, like Man Utd did with Beckham, Scholes, Giggs, Neville etc. or Arsenal with Rocastle, Davis, Thomas et al. Arguably Arsenal are the only "big" English club still doing that, although now the young talent isn't necessarily English.

As for the World Cup, though, I don't think that the quality of the football is everything. The element of exoticism has receded now that every premiership club has a Brazilian or a Honduran, but there are still teams who might surprise with their approach (just watch Chile) or with their level of commitment to the cause.

When some of the biggest clubs in Europe (or the world) come together in those pre-season mini-tournaments the whole world yawns - there's no doubting the talent on show but the games are meaningless, nobody cares who wins. In the context of the World Cup, though, Uruguay v France will have real meaning and tension for those at the game and for all those watching around the world - that and the tension might not make the football great but it ought to be a cracking occasion - or it might just be 0-0.

Originally Posted by Domski

I do hope he's right about the NZ vs Italy game

Dom

Hey Hey... what's that about?

Teylyn, don't let your son get his hopes up to high :P

Here's the final sheet with predictions - just fill in the results in the green section and the scores and table will update automatically.

I'm with Barry's views on the World Cup. It's a brilliant event that even people who don't follow football to the nth degree can get involved in.

That's it, I'm finishing @ 3:00pm and going to the pub to watch the opening match

Dom

Wow! Fantastic. This'll teach the kid Excel. Thanks, DLL!!

Sad note to the festivities; Mandella's granddaughter was killed in a car crash after pre-cup celebrations last night. It's always something.

Still trying to decide whether to root for underdogs South Africa or local favorite Mexico.......

Originally Posted by daddylonglegs

I'd be happier if that applied to club sides too (and it probably will at some point with either a cap on wages or restrictions on foreign players) so then clubs would need to go back to seriously investing in producing their own talent, like Man Utd did with Beckham, Scholes, Giggs, Neville etc. or Arsenal with Rocastle, Davis, Thomas et al. Arguably Arsenal are the only "big" English club still doing that, although now the young talent isn't necessarily English.

Your forgot Adams, how can you forget Tony? How Arsenal could do with him right now.

Heard a nice comment in that ludicrous celebrity game the other day. Apparently, Martin Keown said he hadn't kicked a ball for 5 years prior to this game. Someone, I think it was Andy Townsend, said he hadn't't kicked a ball in the last 5 years of his career, just the opposing forwards.

Originally Posted by daddylonglegs

As for the World Cup, though, I don't think that the quality of the football is everything. The element of exoticism has receded now that every premiership club has a Brazilian or a Honduran, but there are still teams who might surprise with their approach (just watch Chile) or with their level of commitment to the cause.

My dark horse is Uruguay (even though my alter-ego sports a Chilean flag on VBAExpress).

Originally Posted by daddylonglegs

In the context of the World Cup, though, Uruguay v France will have real meaning and tension for those at the game and for all those watching around the world ...

No tension, Uruguay will murder the old prima-donnas.

i dont think DLL has that many £50's to keep donating!
anyway of to a fine start 5 measley points

Originally Posted by Bob Phillips

That's a 1-1 if ever I saw one.

Hey! Good call Mystic Bob, what's your prediction for New Zealand v Slovakia?

Originally Posted by daddylonglegs

Hey! Good call Mystic Bob, what's your prediction for New Zealand v Slovakia?

I think Slovakia will be weak, but I really fear for NZ. They could be Ozzed. And their midfielder, forgotten his name, will probably get a red.

World Cup Royalty showed us how the game is really played

What's the prize for coming last? I'm doing hopelessly so far!!!

First games are always hard to call I keep telling myself

Dom

Originally Posted by Domski

What's the prize for coming last?

Everlasting ridicule and shame?

What a difference a late goal by the Kiwis made. It's moved me from 18th to 9th

Dom

Congratulations to New Zealand, snatched my 0-1 prediction from the jaws of victory......

With a quarter of the games played there's not much in it, 12 points separating top and bottom, that NZ v Slovakia draw propels Domski firmly into mid-table.

If you haven't bothered to update here's the latest attached

...and moved me down further....

... boy it is difficult to predict these initial games... doesn't matter the ranking... sheer luck is what it seems to take many of the times!

The next to games will be very interesting to see the results of....

Sheer luck indeed, if you watch that NZ header in slow-motion...

Looks like I would have been better off predicting ties for every match!

Despite having nothing better to do I have yet to make it through 90 minutes of any match other than England's opener (and that was out of sense of obligation)

As much as it pains me to say, thus far I agree with Bob ().
The football has been dire... and before people harp on about Germany's performance lets first take note that:

a) they were playing against 10 (australian) men for a significant portion of the match

b) they were playing against a side captained by Lucas Neill (which tells it's own story)

Thankfully / Hopefully - with Brazil & Spain soon to enter proceedings we may at last see some decent football where the tactics are to try and score more than the opposition rather than to concede less (or at least no more than).

Perhaps FIFA will consider introducing a nil point return for a scoreless draw...
(it would still be interesting watching the sides collude to concede one each after 88 minutes of a 0-0...)

Originally Posted by NBVC

Looks like I would have been better off predicting ties for every match!

Out of interest I put in an entry to our office sweapstake predicting 0-0 in every game. I still get points if it's a score draw and am doing quite well. Probably won't last when it gets closer to squeeky bum time though.

oy donkyote! dont forget lucas neill was one of our stalwarts!(1995-2001) watch it pal lol

Graphical view, just cuz I was wondering how ...

Graphical view, just cuz I was wondering how

football is played?

Good to see I'm back on form with my predictions with a total of zero points out of today's three games.

Maybe I should be a football pundit (although I'd keep my ticket allocation)

Dom

I was a little upset. Not only did Uruguay's 3rd goal in the 5th minute of injury time deprive me of a correct 0-2 prediction, I also had a few quid on that same 0-2 score.......

Well, look at the bright side, dll, you are at the top right now..enjoy!

Help me, I'm sinking!

Welcome to my world

Dom

Select one from this range of excuses

1.) I was drunk when I filled in my predictions
2.) It's early days yet, I know in my bones that Algeria v USA will be 6-4
3.) My name is Mark Lawrenson
4.) I'm playing the long game......by 2026 my plan will come to fruition
5.) I'm from New Zealand, why isn't the ball more oval?
6.) My dog ate my original predictions......
7.) I had a dream that Slovenia lifted the World Cup.....
8.) They weren't my original predictions, daddylonglegs, I definitely had Spain 0 Switzerland 1......
9.) If only my dog had eaten my original predictions......
10.) Bring on the Olympics

If you've got any points at all, then #3 can't be used.

Hmmm... can I pick "all of the above" .. I am sure they all have some bearing on my poor decisions! Except , of course, I am obviously not from NZ... will give that one to Teylyn.

Hmm, after Germany/Serbia, I'm sure Miles and I will be forever at the bottom of that list.

Aw, shucks. Heads will roll!

Anyway, despite being a resident Kiwi, and having witnessed the All Blacks bulldozer the Irish last Saturday (I was on ther telly!! Just behind the goal posts on the South side, waving the fern!), I can still make the difference between a rugby ball and a proper football. I must confess, I'm not a fan of the ball-cradling variety, though.

Anyway, the two reasons that were not listed in the top ten excuses are the ones I want to apply to the sorry performance of my son and his mother, i.e.:

- I am only seven years old, so what do I know? There's always hope!
- I put in the score predictions my husband told me.

Kia ora!

Still early days yet.....

I was going to include "I'm only seven" on the list but I knew that would start everybody off, "I'm only 43......and American......what do I know",

I'm thinking of varying the scoring system to include handicapping based on age. Could everybody please supply me with their age as on June 11th 2010 (you can, of course, lie wildly)

24!
see here: http://www.excelforum.com/the-water-...-birthday.html

Is age a handicap or an advantage?

Dom

I can't believe what is going on! Serbia for the World CUP!!!

Wouldn't it be neat if an underdog like that took it! It would sure show the world that David could beat Goliath.

Dom,

it depends on the gender.

Males younger than 10 or older than 70 claim the insanity plea, in which case it is an advantage.

Females younger than 45 get leeway for inexperience. Females older than 45 get a penalty for being older than 45.

Do I need to be careful what I say.....

I think there will need to be a sliding scale Dom - anywhere between 30 and 55 will get no advantage but under 30 and over 55 will get extra points for naivety and .....er...."experience" respectively

Edit: or perhaps teylyn has a better system.....

NBVC, if that implies that the German soccer team is a candidate for a Goliath, then I'd have to object. The only thing they're really good at is bragging and complaining.

I'm glad I won't see the German tabloids on every street corner tomorrow.

Not necessarily Germany.. even Brazil have been kicked around.. Portugal, Spain, France... We still have to see about Italy's second go.. (fingers crossed).

A bit like the new French Anthem:

Pas de buts et nous rentrons à la maison!!!

Dom

Originally Posted by Sepp Herberger

Nach dem Spiel ist vor dem Spiel.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sepp_He...#Famous_Quotes

Feels like being bounced around on a trampoline... up and down, up and down... I am dizzy.

I regret to announce that after England's "performance" today the World Cup has been cancelled. See you in 4 years, goodbye.

After looking at the scores of the first dozen games, I added my prediction: every game a 1:1 tie. That puts me at the top of the leaderboard with 32 points.

There is, so far, an average of less than one point scored per game. I assume beer is what gets you through the afternoon?

DLL, it's not that bad! a win Wednesday will do it.
now just to work out how to predict the next roulette number after a 0 is spun
and everything will be hunkydory
ps @shg

1:1 tie

NO NO NO NO!
it's called a DRAW (and a round ball is used )

The weekend's results were kinder to some than others. Updated workbook attached.

Having spent much of the weekend drowning my sorrows at the state of English football the French then stepped in to make it all seem positively rosy!!!

I've decided I'm going to catch a train for the duration of the game on Wednesday in the thought that if we lose I won't want to have watched it and if we win there'll be another game to watch.

Still keeping the faith, just.

Dom

No Up and Down dizziness to report. My consolation seems to be that the only punter worse off than I am is my 7 yr old son. Where does that leave me? -- Probably where I belong!!

I'm thinking you might want to make your push for the top of the table some time soon

Dom

I feel bad now because I forced you to take part

Tottenham supporters used to sing a song "The football league is upside down....."

Nice avatar Teylyn.

I think those vuvuzelas are casting some spells over the tournament!.

Portugal is having a feast!!!

Roll on Friday's match between them and Brazil!
6 different goal scorers is pretty impressive too.

The North Korean team's plane will probably just inexplicably disappear off the radar on the way home after that drubbing.

Dom

Originally Posted by romperstomper

Roll on Friday's match between them and Brazil!
6 different goal scorers is pretty impressive too.

I can't wait!

It might not be much of a game. The winner of Portugal's group will play 2nd place in Spain's group. As Spain lost their first game that could well be Spain. Expect several own goals as both teams desperately try to lose.........

You figure Spain is going to do pretty well here on in?

I think Spain are still the team to beat.....but as it stands they may not even qualify - I expect they'll beat Honduras with something to spare today - they'll need to because Chile won't be pushovers in their last game

With the kind of goals Brazil scored yesterday.. I am a little worried about them, personally.

oh well i'm closing in on that wooden spoon!

Any musicians here? Insider joke attached.