World Cup Prediction Competition

Hello everybody, it's now just 17 days until the the start of the biggest sporting event on the planet (possibly).

Some of you may remember my prediction competition from 2010

That competition was won by Gearcutter and the Barnardos charity ended up £68.71 better off.

I'm doing the same this time round - here are 10 reasons you should enter.......

1.) It's free
2.) It's simple
3.) As long as at least 15 people enter I'll donate £50 to a recognised charity of the winner's choice
4.) You can test your football knowledge against some of the world's top excel experts (and me)
5.) It's free
6.) You can follow your progress and compare against other participants in a no-expense-spared-state-of-the-art excel spreadsheet
7.) It's still free
8.) er.......
9.) that's it

Here's what you do

Open the attached spreadsheet
Fill in your predicted scores for all 48 group games (I've filled in the first one as an example - obviously you can change that score!)
Fill in a name (the name you want displayed - use an alias if you wish)
Fill in the "tie-breaker" under "Goals" - that's how many goals you think will be scored in total in those 48 games.
Now save the workbook and either post it in a reply to this thread or email it to me at d.addylonglegs@virgin.net [exactly as shown - don't forget the "." after the first "d"]
Option 2 is preferable - especially if you don't want others to see your predictions.
If you want to contribute to the winning charity then you can paypal to my email address above - any contributions will be added to the final amount.......although there is absolutely no obligation to do so.

Rules

Scoring is as follows:

A rank is displayed against every team based on the current world rankings, and converted to a ranking within the 32 world cup qualifiers [the "highest" rank is 1]. If you predict a draw and the result is a draw (any draw) you get 3 points. If you predict a win for the higher ranked team and that team wins (by any score) you get 2 points, if you predict a win for the lower ranked team and that team wins you get 4 points. you get 2 additional points if you get the exact score right.

For example in game 1 Brazil play Croatia and Brazil are higher ranked (4 to 19) so if you predict a 2-1 win for Brazil and they win 2-1 you get 4 points, 2 for predicting a win by the higher placed team, and 2 for the correct score. If you predict 2-1 and the result is 3-1 then you'll just get the 2 points etc......

All scores are added and the highest score after 48 games is the winner. Any ties will be decided by the tie-breaker in favour of the closest guess. If it's still tied then kudos and charity are shared.

Predictions need to be emailed to me or posted here by 19:00 BST on Thursday 12th June 2014 - that's 2 hours before the kick-off of the first game.

I will be adding my predictions and posting a spreadsheet back here showing all predictions and a table that will update as you enter the scores. Remember, if you don't want to see your name in lights - use an alias

Advice

It's meant to be fun - anybody taking it too seriously will be ridiculed

If you don't know anything about football (e.g. Chelsea supporters) don't let that stop you entering - for those of you who really know nothing about football, typical top level football games average just over 2 goals a game, so you may not get very far predicting 8-7 scorelines.......

In the last World Cup in South Africa in 2010 the 48 group games produced a total of only 101 goals (2.104 per game on average).

Good luck

Any questions please feel free to post here

Excellent!! even that i am sure that zbor is not happy at all with your example score!!

I think Brazil will score at least 5

.....and of the course the mighty Greece will overwhelm Columbia 3-0.......

If you don't know anything about football (e.g. Chelsea supporters)

Ha ha! I am in! Soon you'll see my workbook.

And i insist that zbor will "kill" you!!

No, it's OK.
DDL wrote

It's meant to be fun

so he opened with a joke.

Here is mine.
Done in 5 minutes.
So do't expect anything.. but it would be same if I think for an hour :D

2.2 goals per match (not optimist).

Thank you zbor - kudos for the first entry.....now I definitely think Brazil 1 Croatia 2......

Note: this competition is cross-posted at MrExcel

here is mine

Hi Guys, if you need some help tracking the scores of your teams...etc you can find an extensive workbook here http://www.thecodecage.com/forumz/vi..._2012_football developed by Mourad Louha (MVP Office Systems for 2011, MVP Excel since 2012) i'm sure you'll be able to adjust it to this years teams (he might even upload one for this year soon).

Enjoy!

Hey Simon!

Thanks for that - I'm going to have a closer look at those later - the tricky bit with the group standings is always trying to incorporate the latest rules (which always seem to change subtly for each tournament), specifically whether the head-to-head records take precedence over goal difference (which isn't the case this time).....or when there are three (or four) way ties.

Will you be entering your predictions?

Here is mine!

Thanks for your entries, Martin, Fotis and raysrains, keep 'em coming........

Just to clarify - your predicted number of goals does not need to match the total number of goals in your predictions!

Ah didntknow that but il let it stand

Originally Posted by daddylonglegs

Hey Simon!

Thanks for that - I'm going to have a closer look at those later - the tricky bit with the group standings is always trying to incorporate the latest rules (which always seem to change subtly for each tournament), specifically whether the head-to-head records take precedence over goal difference (which isn't the case this time).....or when there are three (or four) way ties.

Will you be entering your predictions?

I'm one of those who barely knows what a football is!! that said here's my offerings

Errrr......and PayPal'd ya

Thanks for participating, Simon.......and particularly thanks for the financial contribution.

All contributions will go to a charity chosen by the winner

If by some miracle i win it will be going to a hospice where my Aunt has just passed - what a job those people do!

I have already put my real bet with the bookies.

Thanks, too, for your entries ragulduy and AB33

Here is mine

Thanks for the entries maw230 and Alkey - we now have 14 entries (including me). I'm looking to get that much higher.......so with more than 12 days to go - if you want to try your luck please enter - there's nothing to lose!

Ah thats not true

Right, there's now 3 days (or less) to go until the big kick-off - I have 14 entries including me but I need more!

If you haven't yet entered please consider doing so - it's absolutely free and you might even enjoy the challenge.

I'm looking for "dark horses" for a bit of a flutter. Chile may do better than expected.....but they're in a tough group - I'm looking at Japan to be surprise qualifiers from their group - France to finally get their act together in a world cup for the first time since 1998 (semi-finalists) and somebody to flop badly - perhaps Germany, going into the tournament with only one recognised striker.....and he's past it. Perhaps Portugal and USA to surprise everybody and prevent Germany from qualifying for the knockout phase - you read it here first

Belgium for me are the underrated side. I fancy them to go in to the semi's.
France with Rupery is No! No. Like the Dutch, they have the history of in-fighting. I think the cup will remain in South America.

Originally Posted by maw230

USA ALL THE WAY

It's a tough group but I'm hoping they can upset the odds......

Last chance for entry, now

You have until 19:00 BST tomorrow (2 hours before 1st match kicks off) to get any entries to me. Good luck everybody! I'll post all the predictions here before that match - if you fill in the scores you can see where you rank

Here is mine

I don't know much about Football Teams and the strength of the countries, so gone for a blind approach.

I thought to use RandBetween(0,5) but just wanted to play with excel and used some logics for using the excel formula's (Just for fun only)

Originally Posted by :) Sixthsense :)

I don't know much about Football Teams....

Join the club

Thanks for the entry Sixthsense

OK, here are all the entries as promised. Just fill in the scores (in green cells) as the matches are played and the league table will update automatically.

Note that the times of the games has changed on 22 June. I haven't corrected that but you will have to enter results out of order

hm i'm doing really well at this !

.......but you picked up 4 points in that last game, Martin!

After 8 games Cards leads the way (with 12 points in the last 3 games). If you haven't been filling in the scores yourselves see attached for the latest

I claim to register Brazil - Croatia 1:1 as it should be without Yuichi Nishimura :D

here's hoping Iran and Nigeria remains 0-0!

edit: NICE!

Originally Posted by maw230

here's hoping Iran and Nigeria remains 0-0!

mmmm.....

That wasn't quite what I was looking for - I had a treble on Germany, USA and Nigeria all to win at 14-1.......ony those pesky Nigerians let me down

Wooohoooo! I'm top at the moment and i know sod all about footie!

OK, all teams have now played 2 games - just 4 days and 16 games to go for the group stage

Ragulduy's strategy of going for all 2-1 wins is currently paying off as there have been only 6 draws and he consequently surges to 50 points with a commanding 2 point lead over Cards.

May the best player win!

Originally Posted by daddylonglegs

as there have been only 6 draws

That means draw should gain more points than a win. Even by statistic a result can end with 2/3 win and 1/3 draw.

Originally Posted by ragulduy

(I think a draw does get more points in this competition than predicted a win for the higher ranked team)

Yes, the idea is that the points are distributed roughly in line with the probabilities. A win for the "favorite" is the most likely outcome so gets 2 points, a draw is the next most likely so gets 3 and a win for the underdog is the least likely so scores 4.

Of course that's a generalisation, some favorites are bigger favorites that others.....and in this particular competition the number of draws is a little low, only 8 so far out of 44 games, in South Africa in 2010 there were 12 at this stage.

OK, they think it's all over.....it is now!

Ragulduy was the winner with 74 points, with his fiendishly cunning yet deceptively simple strategy. Congratulations, I will be paying £80 to a charity of Ragulduy's choice (either post your choice here or send me a PM).

Honourable mentions for Cards in 2nd place with 72 points and schielrn in 3rd with 71.....and not forgetting Sixthsense with the "wooden spoon".

Thanks for playing, see you in four years

Congrats to the winner!!! Nicely played

Well done Radudguy
I'm quite proud of my ranking seeing you could write what i know about football on a pinhead
Well done to ewveryone who took part it's going to a good cause.

Last but not least a BIG thankyou for ddl for taking the time and effort to organise and promote this.

SS and Fotis have been relegated to world cup 2 which will be held in Russia in 4 years time.
I will playing in Europe Cup for next season as I just missed by one spot for the Championship League.
Well done Radudguy!

Its France vs Germany today ... Any predictions who the winner would be ??

according to my mate its 0-0 at half time, 1-1 at full time with a red card for france in the second half ,8 bookings,12 corners , his name is pepe lefixer

Originally Posted by AB33

Brazil might not recover from this capitulation until they get the 3R's (Ronaldo, Ronaldinho and Rivaldo) players and go back to their tradition. Football is won and lost on Midfield. I did not see any player with any hint of Brazilian football.

I would also add Kaká

wow i predicted a 7-1 win for germany....well it was a dream

I think, and this is just my opinion, that Scolari is (was) trying to avoid drafting older and more experienced players. For this type of managers, it is more important to have players on the team that are young and will look up to him and will be willing to die if Scolari says so. He underestimated the importance of mental strength over physical. And what happened on the field is a proof to that. The first goal just after the first 10 minutes and then the second after another 10 simply demoralize Brazil so they could no longer fight. This game will become a history, from which, I hope many managers will learn, but is too late for Scolari.

"I think, and this is just my opinion, that Scolari is (was) trying to avoid drafting older and more experienced players"
Alkey!

That was precisely what he did. Maicon is 32 and I am sure Fred is over 30. They are old by today's football standard.
I know Daniel Alves commits lots of fouls, but has a pace. Maicon had a good tournament in 2006, but has lost his form since then. He spent a single season with Man-city, in England. It was a disaster signing by City and quickly off-load him. He appeared once or twice in the entire season. Fred was a top player while he played in French league. That was over 10 years ago.
Before the world cup, I told many of my friends, Brazil will not win with the players they have. Brazil could not even find a striker to
partner Neymar. Scolari had begged Di-Costa who plays for Althletico. Di has switched allegiance with in 5 month time, having played for Brazil in a friendly match. For me, that sums up Scolari and Brazil. He was unable to select any player who plays as a forward and reduced to begging. His coaching style is very old fashion.
Brazil were all hype and were riding on luck and home support. It was only a matter of time before they run out of luck.
The world cup was very disappointing. Most games were negative

Originally Posted by ragulduy

http://www.rethink.org/ please

Sorry, it took me a while to get round to this - just donated £80 + tax to Rethink. Thanks ragulduy and everybody else who played